Moody's Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, from 6.5 per cent, saying economies globally will see a slowdown on account of heightened US policy uncertainty and trade restrictions.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
Silver prices rallied sharply by Rs 15,000 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 265,000 per kg in the national capital on Monday, and gold advanced to a fresh record of Rs 144,600 per 10 grams, mirroring strong gains in the global markets.
Silver prices on Thursday breached the record Rs 4 lakh per kilogram mark in futures trade, while gold touched a lifetime high of Rs 1.8 lakh per 10 grams, riding on strong investor demand and record gains in the international markets.
Stock market benchmarks ended with losses for the third straight session on Wednesday as heightened geopolitical tensions, weak global peers and persistent foreign fund outflows unnerved investors.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Tata Consultancy Services, Asian Paints, Maruti, Sun Pharma, Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Larsen & Toubro were among the biggest laggards. On the other hand, Tata Steel, NTPC, Axis Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
India and Russia are set to expand their defence cooperation, with India expressing interest in procuring additional S-400 missile systems. Discussions took place ahead of the India-Russia annual summit.
The quarterly manufacturing index by the industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (Ficci) rose to an all-time high in the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26), with 91 per cent of respondents reporting either higher or same production levels, against 87 per cent in the previous quarter.
Political analysts express skepticism about the upcoming Bangladesh general election, citing concerns over manipulation, voter participation, and the influence of money and muscle in the changed political landscape.
Global risks include a potential delay in the US-India trade agreement, the possibility of a sharp correction in US equity markets, and renewed geopolitical tensions.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
FDI inflows into India are expected to register robust growth in 2026, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, big-ticket investment announcements, sustained efforts to improve the ease of doing business, and a new generation of investment-linked trade pacts.
This year's Economic Survey and the Union Budget were more closely followed for more reasons than one.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, marking the highest monthly inflow in 17 months, driven by factors such as the interim India-US trade deal, correction in domestic market valuations, and strong corporate earnings.
'If movement remains stalled for three to four months, more than 300,000 recruitments from India could be affected.'
'Except for extremely conservative investors, others can consider allocating 10 to 20 per cent of their portfolio to small caps.'
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Civil unrest in Iran has started impacting India's basmati rice exports to the country, leading to a sharp fall in domestic prices, as exporters face payment delays and mounting uncertainties, an industry body said on Tuesday. The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) urged exporters to reassess risks on Iranian contracts and adopt secured payment mechanisms, warning against over-leveraging inventories meant for the Iranian market.
Uncertainties over the impact of the United States' (US') tariffs on India, along with the ongoing transmission of past rate cuts, prompted the members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain the status quo during the August meeting, the minutes showed. While some of the external members highlighted their concern over growth, the internal members cited the one-year headline inflation rate overshooting the 4 per cent target.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Indian information technology (IT) service providers are expected to deliver low single-digit sequential growth in the first quarter (April-June) of 2025-26 (FY26), even as macroeconomic uncertainties continue to persist due to the volatile geopolitical environment.
Sitharaman continues with the tradition she set in 2019, carrying the budget speech in a 'bahi-khata', which she used after dropping the briefcase tradition.
IndiGo is adjusting its long-haul flight schedule, including suspending services to Copenhagen, due to airspace uncertainties and airport congestion. The airline will also reduce flights to London and Manchester.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
Two-time Olympic medallist PV Sindhu recounts a 'tense and scary' experience at Dubai International Airport after an explosion occurred nearby, amidst escalating tensions in the Gulf region.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
India and France have elevated their relationship to a 'special global strategic partnership,' with increased cooperation in defense, trade, and technology. The leaders also inaugurated a helicopter assembly line in Karnataka.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
'The bigger unknown remains global geopolitics, which is inherently unpredictable, including developments in our neighbourhood.' 'Another concern is the increasing tilt of government finances towards welfare subsidies, especially at the state level.' 'This could constrain capital expenditure, which is critical for long-term growth.'
'We expect inbound numbers in 2025 to come close to pre-pandemic levels -- if not fully match them -- by early 2026.'
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday warned that the world is witnessing a fundamental 'rupture' in the global order rather than a gradual transition, cautioning against weaponising trade, finance, and supply chains.
India is a global leader in software development services, IT enabled services, knowledge process outsourcing services and contract R&D services relating to software development, Sitharaman said noting these business segments are quite inter-connected with each other.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity cooled in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), with deal value falling to $26.26 billion from $29.04 billion a year ago, according to Bloomberg data.
Domestic gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their holdings jump 65 per cent to 95 tonnes in 2025, elevating Indian ETFs to sixth place globally, going by holdings of the yellow metal. At the end of 2024, they ranked eighth with 57.5 tonnes of holding, according to an analysis of data from the World Gold Council (WGC).
With discretionary spending still under pressure, the information technology (IT) services industry continued to face an uncertain demand environment in the third quarter of 2025-26 (Q3FY26).
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
A neutral monetary policy stance, heavy government borrowing, and issuers adjusting to a higher-for-longer yield environment have set the stage for a largely stable corporate bond market in 2026.
